Immigration and the Activists

The long discussed Comprehensive Reform bill to combat illegal immigration is coming to a cloture vote today. This bill is deeply flawed as is the subject.

As happens so often the activists seem to be running the debate. As I look at it I am not sure there is any bill that can make a majority of people happy. That is because the issue is so passionately felt, there are so many gray areas of the issue and the activists have clouded the issue so badly.

Personally I mostly fall into the category of the people who want a comprehensive package, but unlike many of them, I don't believe the current bill can be enforced to the extent it needs to be. The left largely believes in open borders or greatly liberalized borders. The reasons behind this run from the human compassion argument to flat out politics. The right is very divided. They range from what I have expressed as my view to the outright no immigration and send them all back view. There is a lot of room in there.

In this case it seems like President Bush falls closer to the left than the right. Traditional allies don't always hold true. Talk host Glenn Beck is someone I traditionally agree with most of the time. He seems lately to be in the Lou Dobbs insanity crowd. Michael Medved has come out full fledged in favor of the bill although he admits it is flawed but fears that the future may see a much worse bill passed. I happen to believe in this case a bad bill can be worse than no bill. I don't mention some of the more well known talk hosts because they are so predictable.

So where do we go here? I personally hope they defeat the cloture vote. There is enough wrong that this should not go to law. For the future though I believe the longer we wait the hope of getting an enforceable bill will decrease. As we approach the Presidential elections nothing can happen. Our 'leaders' will not risk taking a position on a controversial bill. The nutty anti-immigration activists (I only mean the very extreme) will pummel anyone on the right who supports any bill that 'normalizes' the current illegals.

We have to look at the present situation as unacceptable. There is no incentive for illegal immigrants to go back or join the law biding community. There is no way for them to come out of the shadows. I don't believe Congress can come up with a solution. Maybe the answer is small steps rather than a grandiose comprehensive bill. The risk here is that in a very divided congress all sides want something. Stiff penalties to employers without 'normalizing' current illegals working will not get support from the industries that depend on illegals and therefore the representatives that are friendly to them. Any attempt to give current illegals a way to come out of the shadows will not get the support of the extreme right. Since many of them have powerful microphones that doesn't stand much of a chance.

My prediction is this. The immigration bill will die, nothing will be done until after the next Presidential election and then the outcome will decide which way it goes. If both sides of Congress remain closely divided, I don't think any president will be able to get a bill through. That may or may not be a good thing. I wish I knew for sure which.